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Investtech Indices
Hovedindeksen (OSEBX.OL)
Close: 1 408.00 (+7.46), Dec 23, 2024
Complete report
Algorithmic Overall Analysis
Hold (Score: -17)
Dec 23, 2024. Updated daily.
Analyst's Recommendation
Neutral
Dec 24, 2024. 1 days ago.
Analyses
Short
Medium
Long
Overall
Insider
Investor Psychology - Behavioural Finance - Quantitative Analysis - Scientific Methods
Technical Analysis - Insider Trades - Seasonal Variations - Intraday Trading
Stock data
| Price date | Dec 23, 2024 |
| Currency | NOK |
| ISIN | NO0007035327 |
| Rise from year low | 13.86% |
| Fall from year high | -4.41% |
Automatic technical analysis. Short term
Short term
Hovedindeksen is in a falling trend channel in the short term. This shows that investors over time have sold at lower prices to get out of the index, and indicates negative development for the market. The index gave a negative signal from the rectangle formation by the break down through the support at 1414. Further fall to 1347 or lower is signaled. The index is approaching support at 1402 points, which may give a positive reaction. However, a break downwards through 1402 points will be a negative signal. Volume has previously been high at price tops and low at price bottoms. This weakens the falling trend and could be an early signal of a coming trend break. RSI below 30 shows that the momentum of the index is strongly negative in the short term. Investor have steadily reduced the price to sell the index, which indicates increasing pessimism and continued falling prices. However, particularly in big stocks, low RSI may be a sign that the stock is oversold and that there is a chance for a reaction upwards. The index is overall assessed as technically slightly negative for the short term.Recommendation one to six weeks: Weak Negative (Score: -48)
Automatic technical analysis. Medium term
Medium term
Hovedindeksen is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term. This shows that investors over time have bought the index at higher prices and indicates good development for the market. The index is moving within a rectangle formation between support at 1405 and resistance at 1476. A decisive break through one of these levels indicates the new direction for the index. The index gave a negative signal from the rectangle formation by the break down through the support at 1416. Further fall to 1322 or lower is signaled. The index has support at points 1380 and resistance at points 1460. RSI below 30 shows that the momentum of the index is strongly negative in the short term. Investor have steadily reduced the price to sell the index, which indicates increasing pessimism and continued falling prices. However, particularly in big stocks, low RSI may be a sign that the stock is oversold and that there is a chance for a reaction upwards. The RSI curve shows a falling trend, which is an early signal of a possible trend reversal downwards for the price as well. The index is overall assessed as technically neutral for the medium long term.Recommendation one to six months: Hold (Score: -4)
Automatic technical analysis. Long term
Long term
Investors have paid higher prices over time to buy Hovedindeksen and the index is in a rising trend channel in the long term. This signals increasing optimism among investors and indicates continued rise. The index is approacing resistance at 1470 points, which may give a negative reaction. However, a break upwards through 1470 points will be a positive signal. The index is assessed as technically neutral for the long term.Recommendation one to six quarters: Hold (Score: 22)
Full history
Candlesticks 95 days
Candlesticks 22 days
Insider Trades
Insider trades reported last 18 months. The stock is neutral on Insider Trades.
| Date | Type | Count | Price | Value | Percent | Controlled | Text | Importance |
|---|
Commentaries
Automatic technical analysis of the stock, based on last closing price. The chart may have changed since the analyst's recommendation was written.
Analyst's Recommendation
Dec 24, 2024 (1 days ago)Geir Linløkken
geir.linlokken@investtech.com
Recommendation one to six months: Neutral
Geir Linløkken, Dec 24, 2024 (price 1 400.54)
Det ble en svak stigning i markedet mandag lille julaften, og Hovedindeksen endte på 1408 poeng, noe som er en oppgang på 0.5 prosent. Indeksen vendte med dette opp etter seks dager med nedgang.Hovedindeksen på Oslo Børs ligger i like over 1400 poeng etter å ha steget rundt åtte prosent hittil i år. Det er en litt svakere stigningstakt enn de 11,5 prosentene indek-sen i snitt har steget per år siden 1983. På de 42 årene som har gått siden da, har indeksen nå 96-doblet seg.
Hovedindeksen har siden mai utviklet en rektangelformasjon med støtte fra 1380-1400 poeng og motstand ved 1460-1473 poeng. Både støtte- og motstandsnivåene har vist seg vanskelig å bryte, men når signifikant brudd endelig skjer, vil en videre utvikling i samme retning indikeres. Inntil videre er helhetsbildet ganske nøytralt.
Investtechs optimismeindekser (hausseindeksene) har falt i takt med Hovedindeksen, og er kraftig ned den siste uken. Den kortsiktige indeksen ligger på 41 poeng, den langsiktige på 38, og indikerer at det nå er en klar overvekt av pessimister blant både de kortsiktige og de langsiktige investorene på børsen. Se også Investtechs likeveide indeks for Norge.
Styremedlemmer, direktører og andre innsidere har rapportert 133 handler den siste måneden, etter høy aktivitet de siste ukene. Siste måned var 81 prosent av handlene kjøp, noe som er godt over gjennomsnittet for hele det siste året. En stor overvekt av innsidere sender positive signaler ved kjøp av aksjer i egen bedrift.
Konklusjon: Oslo Børs anses nøytral på mellomlang sikt (1-6 måneder). Vi anbefaler langsiktige investorer å være investert i markedet hele tiden.
Det er julaften når denne morgenrapporten sendes ut. Vi takker alle abonnenter for følget gjennom 2024, og ønsker dere en god og fredelig jul, og et riktig godt nytt år. Vi ser fram til å gi dere de beste analyseverktøyene og konkrete aksjeanbefalinger i året som kommer.
Ser vi på de langsiktige analysene, gir Investtechs algoritmer mot utgangen av 2024 kjøpsanbefaling på 118 aksjer, salgsanbefaling på 101, mens 100 får holdanbefaling. Her er fire av de sterkeste aksjene for 2025 ifølge Investtechs datamaskiner.
Recommendation one to six months: Neutral
Published: Morning Report (Dec 24, 2024 11:50) [GL]
The analysis is written by Investtech's analyst on the given date based on the price charts of this date. The analysis is meant to be valid for a few weeks, up to a few months. Later price developments may indicate changes in the market and investor optimism, and render the analysis outdated. Investtech's automatic analyses, updated daily, will often reflect such changes.
Previous recommendations
Fredrik Dahl Bråten, Dec 18, 2024 (price 1 414.24)
Det ble en svak nedgang i markedet onsdag, og Hovedindeksen endte på 1414 poeng, noe som er en nedgang på 0.2 prosent. Dette var den fjerde dag på rad indeksen falt. Indeksen utløste et salgssignal ved bruddet ned gjennom støtten ved 1416 poeng i en rektangelformasjon. En videre nedgang til 1322 poeng i løpet av ni måneder signaliseres av formasjonen.
Hovedindeksen på Oslo Børs ligger i en stigende trendkanal på mellomlang sikt, som signaliserer en videre oppgang innenfor denne. Helt siden mai har børsen imidlertid vært ganske sidelengs, og det er dannet støtte fra 1380-1400 poeng, mens det er motstand ved 1460-1473 poeng. Både støtte- og motstandsnivåene har vist seg vanskelig å bryte, men når det endelig skjer, vil en videre utvikling i samme retning indikeres. Det tekniske bildet er blandet og helhetsbildet er nå ganske nøytralt.
Investtechs kortsiktige og langsiktige optimismeindekser (hausseindeksene) ligger begge på 42 poeng og indikerer en liten overvekt av pessimister blant både de kortsiktige og de langsiktige investorene på børsen. Se også Investtechs likeveide indeks for Norge.
Styremedlemmer, direktører og andre innsidere har rapportert 123 handler den siste måneden, etter høy aktivitet de siste ukene. Siste måned var 84 prosent av handlene kjøp, noe som er godt over gjennomsnittet for hele det siste året. En stor overvekt av innsidere sender positive signaler ved kjøp av aksjer i egen bedrift.
Konklusjon: Oslo Børs anses nøytral på mellomlang sikt (1-6 måneder). Vi anbefaler langsiktige investorer å være investert i markedet hele tiden.
Vi nærmer oss perioden for mulige nyttårseffekter. Historisk har mesteparten av effektene kommet i perioden fra cirka 20. desember til litt ut i januar. Tiden fra slutten av november og fram mot 20. desember har imidlertid vært fin til å posisjonere seg for de potensielle effektene. I morgenrapportene framover vil vi ha spesielt fokus på aksjer som kan gjøre det sterkt rundt nyttår.
Ifølge Investtechs forskning gjør de mest volatile aksjene på Oslo Børs det betydelig svakere enn mindre volatile aksjer. Spesielt volatile aksjer som samtidig er teknisk negative, har statistisk gått dårlig. I en liten periode av året, fra rundt midten av desember til tidlig i januar, har imidlertid de volatile aksjene klart overprestert i forhold til andre aksjer. Se sesongmessig prediksjon for Investtech-indeksene for Nordens (link) og Norges (link) 20 prosent mest volatile aksjer (krever Professional-abonnement). Om de statistiske svingningene gjentar seg, vil tiden fram mot 20. desember være gunstig for å posisjonere seg i slike aksjer.
I dagens morgenr
Published: Morning Report (Dec 18, 2024 19:01) [FDB]
Kari Poblete, Oct 29, 2024 (price 1 449.88)
Det ble en negativ utvikling i markedet mandag, og Hovedindeksen endte på 1450 poeng, noe som er en nedgang på 0.8 prosent.
Hovedindeksen ligger i en stigende trendkanal på mellomlang sikt, og en videre oppgang innenfor denne indikeres. Indeksen tester motstanden ved cirka 1460 poeng. Dette kan gi en reaksjon ned, mens et brudd opp gjennom 1460 poeng vil utløse et kjøpssignal. Ved reaksjoner tilbake er det støtte rundt 1380 og i overkant av 1300 poeng.
Se også Investtechs likeveide indeks for Norge.
Investtechs kortsiktige og langsiktige optimismeindekser (hausseindeksene) ligger på henholdsvis 53 og 48 poeng. Hausseindeksene indikerer at det er ganske jevt mellom optimister og pessimister blant både de kortsiktige og de langsiktige investorene på børsen.
Styremedlemmer, direktører og andre innsidere har rapportert 68 handler den siste måneden. Det er lav handel nå, tidlig i perioden for rapportering av tredjekvartalstall. Siste måned var 79 prosent av handlene kjøp, som er rett under gjennomsnittet for hele det siste året. En stor overvekt av innsidere sender positive signaler ved kjøp av aksjer i egen bedrift.
Konklusjon: Oslo Børs anses svakt positiv på mellomlang sikt (1-6 måneder). Vi anbefaler langsiktige investorer å være investert i markedet hele tiden.
Published: Morning Report (Oct 29, 2024 07:59) [KP]
Analysts' recommendations last 18 months
Positive/Weak Positive
Neutral
Negative/Weak Negative
History of Investtech's analysts' analyses of the stock. Analyses are shown by coloured dots on the day the analysis was based on.
| Evaluation | Time horizon | Price | Published | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Neutral | Medium term | 1 400.54 | Dec 24, 2024 11:50, Morning Report | GL |
| Neutral | Medium term | 1 414.24 | Dec 18, 2024 19:01, Morning Report | FDB |
 Weak Positive | Medium term | 1 449.88 | Oct 29, 2024 07:59, Morning Report | KP |
 Positive | Medium term | 1 461.21 | Oct 27, 2024 19:40, Morning Report | FDB |
| Weak Positive | Medium term | 1 361.58 | Aug 6, 2024 08:37, Morning Report | KP |
| Positive | Medium term | 1 342.78 | Apr 2, 2024 23:56, Morning Report | FDB |
| Weak Positive | Medium term | 1 328.15 | Mar 27, 2024 22:05, Morning Report | FDB |
| Neutral | Medium term | 1 264.02 | Feb 18, 2024 14:53, Morning Report | FDB |
 Weak Negative | Medium term | 1 247.17 | Feb 7, 2024 21:33, Morning Report | FDB |
| Neutral | Medium term | 1 271.16 | Jan 17, 2024 20:26, Morning Report | FDB |
| Weak Positive | Medium term | 1 303.96 | Jan 9, 2024 08:13, Morning Report | KP |
| Positive | Medium term | 1 307.12 | Jan 4, 2024 21:46, Morning Report | GL |
| Neutral | Medium term | 1 299.85 | Nov 28, 2023 23:43, Morning Report | FDB |
| Weak Positive | Medium term | 1 315.22 | Nov 27, 2023 07:21, Morning Report | FDB |
| Neutral | Medium term | 1 254.72 | Oct 24, 2023 07:54, Morning Report | GL |
| Weak Positive | Medium term | 1 291.25 | Oct 19, 2023 20:24, Morning Report | GL |
| Positive | Medium term | 1 295.77 | Oct 10, 2023 22:46, Morning Report | FDB |
| Neutral | Medium term | 1 253.05 | Oct 5, 2023 22:09, Morning Report | FDB |
FDB: Fredrik Dahl Bråten (Analyst)
GL: Geir Linløkken (Head of Analyses)
KP: Kari Poblete (Analyst)
Results analysis
Average price development
Seasonal variations
Seasonal prediction from today's date
The blue line shows average price development the past 10 years, in the period from three months before to six months after today's date. The black line is actual price development in the past three months. Shaded areas are one and two standard deviations.
Monthly and annual statistics
Average development per month, last 10 years
Average development throughout the year, last 10 years
Annual development from 2015 to 2024
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Trading limits
Data missingEarly warning
| Close prices next day that when broken will generate new signals |  | |
|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Price | Objective |
| High-RSI | 1 607.07 | - |
| Short Term Trading Range | 1 472.91 | - |
| Long Term Trading Range | 1 472.91 | - |
| Low-RSI | 1 413.68 | - |
| Last close | 1 408.00 | - |
| Rectangle | 1 405.24 | 1 347.30 |
| Indicator: | Type of indicator generating the signal | |
| Price: | If close price next day has crossed this value, a technical signal is created | |
| Objective: | Price target for the positive or negative signal (Only listed for patterns) | |
Alerts
| Date | Price | Signal/Trading opportunity | Time span | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 400.54 | Long Term Trading Range | Medium term | -1.00 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 414.24 | Rectangle | Medium term | 1 322.05 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 414.24 | Rectangle | Short term | 1 347.05 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 408.00 | REC evolving in rising trend | Medium term | 1 476.00 - 1 550.00 |
Key ratios
Data missingHelp and information - Research shows the importance of Trend, Momentum and Volume
Investtech’s analyses focus on a stock’s trend status, short term momentum and volume development. These are central topics of technical analysis theory that describe changes in investor optimism or fluctuations in a company’s financial development. However, Investtech’s strong focus on these elements is due to research results that clearly indicate causation between these factors and future return on the stock market.
Trend
Theory: Stocks in rising trends will continue to rise.
Psychology/economy: Rising trends indicate that the company experiences positive development and increasing buy interest among investors. Read more
Research: Stocks in rising trend channels in Investtech’s medium long term charts have been followed by an annualized excess return of 7.8 percentage points compared to average benchmark development. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 34,880 cases of stocks in rising trends on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015.
Read more about the research results here
Momentum
Theory: Stocks with rising short term momentum will continue to rise. Stocks with very strong momentum (overbought) will react backwards.
Psychology/economy: RSI above 70 shows strong positive momentum. The stock has risen in the short term without any significant reactions downwards. Investors have kept paying more to buy stocks. This indicates that more investors want to buy the stock and that the price will continue to rise. Read more
Research: Stocks with strong momentum have on average continued to rise, and more so than the average stock listed on the Exchange. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 24,208 cases of stocks on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015 where RSI went above 70 points, indicating strong and increasing short term momentum. On average, annualized, the stocks rose the equivalent of 11.4 percentage points more than the average stock.
Read the research report here
Volume
Theory: Rising prices on high volume and falling prices on low volume indicate strength in a stock. Volume can confirm a rising trend or signal that a falling trend is ending.
Psychology/economy: When investors very much want to buy a stock, they have to increase the price to find new sellers. Rising price on high volume shows that some investors are so aggressive that they push the price up to be able to buy the stock. Investtech’s Volume Balance tool measures the relation between price rise and volume and measures investor aggression at rising and falling prices. Read more
Research: Stocks with volume balance above 40 have been followed by an average annual return of 4.7 percentage points on the Nordic Stock Exchanges, shown by research conducted by Investtech into 24,580 cases.
Read the research report here
Investtech's analyses
Investtech has combined theory, psychology and research into powerful investment tools.
About Investtech
Investtech are behavioural finance and quantitative stock analysis specialists. The company sells analysis products to private, professional and institutional investors. Investtech manage the AIFM company Investtech Invest, which invests customers’ funds in the stock market.
Investtech’s computers analyze more than 28,000 stocks from 12 different countries every day. The analyses are presented in eight languages and sold to customers worldwide. In addition to the automatic analyses, the company’s analysts present subjective assessments and recommendations for some markets. The analyses are available to customers in the form of daily morning reports and cases, and weekly market updates and model portfolios.
Investtech’s algorithms for analysis, ranking and stock recommendations are based on research dating back to 1993. Part of the research was conducted in cooperation with Oslo University and the Norwegian Research Council. Research still has high priority for Investtech. Many of the company’s research results are available for customers on the company’s web site.
The company’s basic product starts at approx. 30 euro per month. Investtech also provides bespoke products for integration on partners’ web sites and for use in newsletters, for example to stock brokers and the media. Contact us by e-mail to info@investtech.com or by phone +47 21 555 888 for more information. A free trial subscription is available to order on our web site www.investtech.com.
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www.investtech.com
Investor Psychology - Behavioural Finance - Quantitative Analysis - Scientific Methods
Technical Analysis - Insider Trades - Seasonal Variations - Intraday Trading
Investtech guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analyses. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. Investtech is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of Investtechs analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations. Further information about Investtechs analyses can be found here disclaimer.
The content provided by Investtech.com is NOT SEC or FSA regulated and is therefore not intended for US or UK consumers.
Investtech guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analyses. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. Investtech is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of Investtechs analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations. Further information about Investtechs analyses can be found here disclaimer.
The content provided by Investtech.com is NOT SEC or FSA regulated and is therefore not intended for US or UK consumers.
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+47 21 555 888
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